Should China be concerned about Hong Kong's Umbrella generation?

BEIJING is losing patience with Hong Kong’s Umbrella Revolution which has seen tens of thousands take to the streets in ‘peaceful’ protests to call for universal suffrage and oppose China’s interference in the city’s affairs, writes guest expert Joseph Dobbs. The protesters want the Chinese government to withdraw its proposal to vet nominees for Hong Kong’s top office of chief executive. But on October 15, 2014, police abandoned their ‘softer approach’ and clashed with demonstrators to free streets near government offices and financial institutions. Beijing is due to host the annual forum of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) for 21 Pacific Rim member economies in November and this is an embarrassment on its doorstep. Hong Kong has been plunged into what is seen as its worst political crisis since the former British colony’s return to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) 17 years ago. Tension has been created by divergent interests between Hong Kong's economic tycoons supporting loose ties with mainland China and the city's youth, fearful that economic benefits will not extend to them. Few now are optimistic about Hong Kong's democratic prospects. They believe China is reneging on its promise to allow Hong Kong's citizens to democratically elect, for the first time, their top leader in 2017. China is now insisting it will vet candidates. In August 2014, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) offered Hong Kong ‘universal suffrage with Chinese characteristics’. But while the current unrest found its spark after that August ruling, discontent has been brewing long before the NPC’s decision. In 1997, Hong Kong swapped one undemocratic system for another. After more than 150 years of British colonial rule, the southern Chinese city began a radical political experiment: ‘One Country, Two Systems’. This promised Hong Kong it could keep its distinct system and way of life while rejoining a de facto communist China. Attempts by both the national and local governments to engender a sense of belonging to the Chinese nation have been met over the years with deaf ears or angry outbursts. The initial disproportionate response by the local authorities to largely peaceful demonstrations when students took over central Hong Kong in September 2014, together with embattled Hong Kong Chief Executive C.Y. Leung’s refusal to meet with protest groups, gathered much support from a weary society. Beijing has remained quiet throughout. Early on in the presidency of China's Xi Jinping, the world was given an indication as to how the Communist Party (CCP) would continue its political development. What has been referred to as Document Number 9 which specifically targets ‘Western Constitutional Democracy’, ‘Universal Values’ and the ‘Promotion of Civil Society’ as threats to one-party rule, makes clear that President Xi’s ideology is fundamentally against the core values of the Umbrella Revolution. Beijing has demanded that any future Hong Kong chief executive candidate must ‘love the country and love Hong Kong’ and not oppose the CCP’s one-party rule. Many Hong Kongers believe that their rule of law is under threat. Rule of party trumps rule of law in President Xi’s China. The pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong has seen a dramatic change of guard, from a generation whose formative political years were in the twilight years of British colonial rule, to one whose political and social education has been entirely framed by ‘One Country, Two Systems’. Many of the 2014 protesters have grown up in a political environment where Beijing is seen as the cause of many of Hong Kong’s problems, and where mainlanders flocking to Hong Kong are criticised for causing a housing bubble which means many now live with their parents well into their 20s. Persistent cultural legacies from the British era such as the city’s education system, as well as Western influences, mean the young see themselves as very different from their mainland counterparts and more at home in London and New York than Shanghai or Beijing. While the pursuit of universal suffrage is the core motivation for most young protesters, socio-economic factors have also played into the dissatisfaction many feel with their government and towards closer ties with the mainland. In contrast to their elders, the city’s youth feel the economic benefits of closer ties with the mainland will not necessarily be extended to them. While the older generations experienced a boom in the 1980s and 1990s as a result of close ties with China’s rapidly expanding economy, the current youth generation has far less cause to be optimistic. Rising social inequality means that whatever the economic benefits of closer ties with the mainland, which the business community believes is worth a trade-off for political freedoms, the youth are less inclined to accept.

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